基于混沌時(shí)間序列的大壩變形短期預(yù)測
田旦;許才軍;周命端;陳浩
將混沌時(shí)間序列預(yù)測理論應(yīng)用到大壩變形預(yù)測中,根據(jù)非線性大壩變形時(shí)間序列,運(yùn)用相空間重構(gòu)理論,建立了加權(quán)一階局域法、基于最大Lyapunov指數(shù)法大壩預(yù)測模型,對混沌的大壩變形數(shù)據(jù)短期預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行了研究,對比分析了各自的特點(diǎn),并結(jié)合實(shí)例完成了對大壩變形的預(yù)測。計(jì)算分析表明,該模型預(yù)測誤差較小,與傳統(tǒng)的自回歸模型預(yù)測結(jié)果相比,基于混沌時(shí)間序列的預(yù)測方法在大壩變形的短期預(yù)測中具有更高的精度。
【作者單位】：武漢大學(xué)測繪學(xué)院;上海港務(wù)工程公司檢修技術(shù)站
【關(guān)鍵詞】：大壩變形預(yù)測;混沌時(shí)間序列;相空間重構(gòu);加權(quán)一階局域法;Lyapunov指數(shù)
【正文快照】：
0引言混沌時(shí)間序列預(yù)測是20世紀(jì)80年代末發(fā)展起來的一種非線性預(yù)測方法[1],傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測方法主要有動(dòng)力學(xué)方法和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,其共同特點(diǎn)是先建立數(shù)據(jù)序列的主觀模型,然后根據(jù)主觀模型進(jìn)行計(jì)算和預(yù)測。混沌科學(xué)的發(fā)展,使得不必事先建立主觀模型,而直接根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)序列本身所計(jì)算出來
The chaotic Time Series-based Short-term Prediction of Dam Deformation
The chaotic time series prediction theory is applied to the dam deformation.According to the nonlinear characteristics of dam deformation time series and the theory of phase space reconstruction,two prediction models of dam deformation are established.The two models are the prediction model of adding-weight one-rank method and the prediction model of Lyapunov exponents.The characteristics of the above models are compared and analyzed as well.The study indicates that the prediction errors are small.Compared with the traditional AR model,the chaotic time series prediction theory has a high accuracy in the dam deformation prediction.
【Keyword】：dam deformation prediction;chaotic time series;phase space reconstruction;adding-weight one-rank local-region method;Lyapunov exponents
